行人流运动中行为偏好形成规律理论的研究

项目名称： 行人流运动中行为偏好形成规律理论的研究

项目编号： No.11302022

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 王子洋

作者单位： 北京交通大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 准确预测行人流运动特性是提高行人交通设施使用效率和安全性的前提，行为偏好是决定行人流运动特性的关键。然而，目前针对行人行为偏好形成规律的基础理论研究仍很贫乏，进而导致实际应用中行人流运动特性预测出现较大偏差。本项目基于认知学中行为偏好的形成在于使用该行为后总能取得良好效果的观点，采用演化博弈方法，对行人行为偏好形成规律相关理论进行研究。具体研究内容包括：开展自然观测实验及可控行人运动实验揭示行人行为偏好的形成特征和基本形成规律；提出多指标融合的演化博弈模型对行人行为偏好形成过程建模；采用数学解析、模型仿真以及可控实验观测等多种手段提取并量化行人行为偏好的形成条件，并建立典型场景中行人行为偏好种类和程度的预测方法。通过以上内容的研究，本项目将为行人行为偏好形成规律这一重要问题建立完整的理论框架，并为提高行人流运动特性预测的准确性提供理论和技术支撑。

中文关键词： 行人流；行为偏好；演化博弈；收益驱动；统计分析

英文摘要： The accurate prediction of pedestrian dynamics is the precondition to guarantee the service level of pedestrian traffic as well as the pedestrian safety. The behavior bias is the key factor to affect pedestrian dynamics. The lack of the theory about the bias formation makes the property of bias unpredictable, which often causes large errors in pedestrian dynamics estimation. Cognitive scientists indicate that the formation of behavior bias is due that the effect is always well when taking that behavior. Motivated by this idea, we plan to use evolutionary game method to investigate the law underlying the formation of pedestrian behavior bias : design and conduct the natural observing and controlled pedestrian moving experiments to discover the property and basical law of pedestrian behavior bias formation; build up the model to discribe the process of bias formation by multiply income indexes method; extract the formation conditions for behavior bias by various ways, such as mathematical analysis, simulation, as well as controlled experiments. By implementing this plan, a whole framework of the law of the formation of pedestrian behavior bias will be established, and the method of predicting the property of pedestrian behavior bias under given scenes will be given. So it is reasonable to believe that the plan wil

英文关键词： pedestrian flow；behavior bias；game evolutionary；gain driven；statistical analysis