基于ROC曲线分析理论的矿产预测与效果评价的通用效益-代价模型研究及应用示范

项目名称： 基于ROC曲线分析理论的矿产预测与效果评价的通用效益-代价模型研究及应用示范

项目编号： No.41472299

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 陈永良

作者单位： 吉林大学

项目金额： 100万元

中文摘要： 当代矿产预测理论与方法体系缺少矿产预测效果评价的通用模型和准则。ROC曲线分析理论及其在机器学习和医疗诊断领域的应用研究成果为研制矿产预测效果评价的通用模型和准则提供了一种有益的借鉴。鉴于此，项目组拟将ROC曲线分析理论引入矿产预测研究领域，研制基于ROC曲线分析理论的矿产预测和预测效果评价的通用效益－代价模型。新模型把矿产预测的总体目标量化为最小化代价－最大化效益的矿产预测通用准则，用来解决找矿证据优选、连续型找矿证据最优离散化、矿产靶区预测和预测效果评价等一系列关键科学问题，使矿产预测过程实现自动化。以地物化遥多源地学数据为基本数据源，拟在两个示范区创建通用效益－代价模型矿产预测和预测效果评价应用研究的典型范例。此项研究能够拓宽ROC曲线分析理论的应用研究领域，促进当代矿产预测理论与方法体系的发展，预期研究成果具有重要的理论意义和推广应用价值。

中文关键词： ROC；曲线分析；多源地学数据；效益－代价模型；矿产预测；预测效果评价

英文摘要： The modern theory and method system of mineral prediction lacks a universal model and criterion for mineral prediction performance assessment. The ROC curve analysis theory and its applications in machine learning and medical diagnosis provide a useful reference for developing the universal model and criterion for the mineral prediction performance assessment. For this reason, our research group plan to introduce the ROC curve analysis theory into the research field of the mineral prediction to develop an ROC curve analysis theory based universal benefit-cost model for the mineral prediction and prediction performance assessment. In the new model, the overall goal of mineral prediction is defined quantitatively as the universal mineral prediction criterion called minimizing costs while maximizing benefits. This criterion can be used to properly deal with a set of the key scientific problems such as metallogenic evidence selection, the optimal segmentation of continuous metallogenic evidences, mineral target prediction, prediction performance assessment, and so on, and further make the mineral prediction procedure become an automated process. The multisource geo-data including geological, geochemical, geophysical, and remote sensing data serve as the basic data sources for the mineral prediction. Application examples of the universal benefit-cost model for the mineral prediction and prediction performance assessment will be established in the two application demonstration areas. This research can expand the application fields of the ROC curve analysis theory and promote the development of the modern theory and method system of the mineral prediction. The expected achievements have both important theoretical significance and practical popularization value.

英文关键词： ROC curve analysis;Multisource geo-data;Benefit-cost model;Mineral prediction;Prediction performance assessment