基于检测器数据的道路网络交通运行状态可靠性在线分析与预测方法研究

项目名称： 基于检测器数据的道路网络交通运行状态可靠性在线分析与预测方法研究

项目编号： No.51278257

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 姜桂艳

作者单位： 宁波大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 针对目前道路交通拥堵日益严重的现实，本项目以提高路网交通运行稳定性为目标，通过从全新角度对各类交通检测器获取的实时交通数据进行更深层次的挖掘，指出当前和未来一段时间内影响路网交通运行可靠性的敏感单元，为交通管理者和交通出行者的动态决策提供更有价值的信息基础。研究内容主要包括：（1）基于检测器数据的路段/路口交通运行状态可靠性指标体系及其测度方法；（2）基于检测器数据的单一路径、OD 间子路网和区域路网的交通运行状态可靠性分析方法；（3）基于路网交通运行状态可靠性分析的敏感路段和路口确定方法；（4）基于检测器数据的短时交通参数动态可预测性在线分析方法和短时交通参数多步预测模型与算法。 本项目的研究成果对于改善交通管理者和交通出行者动态决策的预见性和有效性、预防交通拥堵形成和加快拥堵疏散、提升路网整体交通运行的稳定性和效率，具有重要的学术意义和广泛的应用前景。

中文关键词： 检测器数据；路网交通状态；可靠性分析；可靠性预测；可靠性分配

英文摘要： Along with the increasing of dimension and complexity of road network and with the popularization of motor vehicle, congestion alleviating has been a highly complicated systems engineering which need the cooperation of many factors, many processes and many techniques. Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) is known as the best approach to enhance the efficiency and security of the existent road network. Especially, Advanced Traffic Management System (ATMS) and Advanced Traffic Information System (ATIS) in ITS are in the highest flight. The traffic surveillance systems have been built in many cities in China which have played an important role in improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the dynamic decisions for traffic managers and drivers. But further upgrade could be done for the processing and utilizing of the detector data in these systems. One problem is the incapacity in screening out the sensitive links and intersections which would have strategic impact on the operation stability of the road network as a whole. Another problem is the lack of trend prediction for traffic state in some time intervals in the future. Under the conditions of road traffic congestion getting serious increasingly and of detector data online using insufficiently, our goal is to enhance the traffic operation stability of t

英文关键词： detector data；traffic state of road network；reliability analysis；reliability prediction；reliability allocation