多服务公交系统协调控制理论与方法

项目名称： 多服务公交系统协调控制理论与方法

项目编号： No.51308410

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 暨育雄

作者单位： 同济大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 为提高运输效率和服务水平，公交线路常采用全程车、区间车和大站快车等多服务模式组合。如不同服务模式缺乏有效协调控制，公交运行的稳定性和可靠性无法得到保障，导致公交对公众的吸引力降低。公交运行不稳定和不可靠的最直观表现为公交串车。为缓解公交串车问题，国内外学者提出许多控制方法，但多数仅适用于单服务公交路线。本项目以多服务公交系统为研究对象，面向实时控制的需求，从公交串车的影响因素分析入手，解析串车的形成机理，建立"公交串车预测"模型以准确刻画串车的可能性。然后基于主动控制的思想，构建公交鲁棒控制方法和"协调优化、协同控制、反馈调节"的控制机制，协调多服务模式的公交运行，协同重点站驻站、信号优先和车速调节三类控制手段，根据反馈信息实时调整控制方案，保证系统运行处于或接近稳态。成果将揭示公交运行失稳的规律，为公交控制管理提供理论基础和技术支撑。

中文关键词： 多服务模式；公交串车；优化控制；车内拥挤；客流估计

英文摘要： A transit route usually adopts multiple service patterns, such as all-stop, short-turn and express services, to improve transport efficiency and level of service. If service patterns are not well coordinated, the stability and reliability of bus operations cannot be guaranteed, resulting in the low attraction of transit for the public. The most obvious phenomenon of unstable and unreliable transit operations is bus bunching. To alleviate the bunching problem, researchers proposed many control methods. However, most of them are suitable only for a bus route with a unique service pattern. This study focuses on real-time control for a bus system with multiple service patterns. Firstly, this study analyzes the factors that cause bus bunching and the formation process of bus bunching, and then develops a model to predict the probability that bus bunching will occur. Based on the idea of active control, this study develops a robust control method for bus operations and designs the control mechanism of "coordinate optimization, synergy control and feedback adjustment". That is, the proposed approach coordinates the operations of buses of multiple service patterns, realizes the cooperative operations of holding, signal priority and speed adjustment, and adjusts control strategies based on feedback information. Eventuall

英文关键词： Multiple service patterns；Bus bunching；Optimal Control；Bus Crowding；Passenger OD Estimation