粮食进口来源布局对中国粮食进口波动的影响研究——基于地域季节差异视角

项目名称： 粮食进口来源布局对中国粮食进口波动的影响研究——基于地域季节差异视角

项目编号： No.71503127

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 林大燕

作者单位： 南京理工大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 如何确保粮食安全关系着中国经济发展和社会稳定大局。随着经济的发展，中国粮食需求增长与资源环境约束矛盾加剧，粮食进口增长迅猛。近年粮食进口波动加剧提高了进口利用世界粮食资源的风险和难度，引发了学者对粮食进口的担忧，除与主产国签订长期合同、发展期货市场、推进走出去等措施外，更多学者建议多样化进口来源。该建议假设所有来源的粮食出口波动趋势都存在差异。然而，与工业品的可连续供应不同，粮食生产具有季节性，且相同地域的生产季节和出口时间相似。如多元化的进口来源同属一地域，因新进口来源的波动与原进口来源相似，反而可能加剧进口波动。反之，多元化生产季节差异显著的不同地域的进口来源可有效抑制进口波动。本研究将基于粮食生产的地域季节差异，针对近年中国粮食进口来源布局的显著变化，深入分析并测度进口来源布局对中国粮食进口波动的影响，丰富和完善本领域研究视角和分析框架的同时，为中国应对粮食进口波动风险提供决策参考。

中文关键词： 进口来源布局；进口波动；粮食；地域季节差异；中国

英文摘要： Ensuring food security is closely related to China’s economic development and social stability. As China’s economy grows up, contradictions of increased food demands with resource constraints are sharpening. Imports of food grow dramatically. Recently wider fluctuations of food import have been increasing the risks and difficulties in utilizing word food resources via import, which concerns scholars about food imports. In addition to the establishment of long-term contracts with main producing countries, food futures market and promoting Go global strategy, diversified import sources are also recommended by the scholars. The proposal implied that export volatility from different import sources is heterogeneous. However, distinct from continuous supply of industrial products, production of food is seasonal, and production season within the same region is similar to each other, as well as export time. So if a new source of import is in the same region as the traditional ones, it will exacerbate import fluctuations since volatility of the new source of import synchronizes with that of traditional ones. On the contrary, diversifying sources of import with seasonal differences may help to ease import volatility. The study is to analyze the impact of changes on pattern of food import sources on China’s food imports volatility based on the perspective of regional season differences of food production. The research may enrich the perspectives and research framework of the related research fields. It may also provide references for China’s decision-makers to cope with risks of food import volatility.

英文关键词： Import Sources Pattern ;Import Volatility;Food;Regional Season Differences;China