基于轨迹交叉论的弯道路段交通事故形成机理研究

项目名称： 基于轨迹交叉论的弯道路段交通事故形成机理研究

项目编号： No.50808093

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 金属学与金属工艺

项目作者： 席建锋

作者单位： 吉林大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 统计表明，二级及二级以下公路上的交通事故约占我国事故总数的 70%，其中急弯路段是事故的五大高发路段之一。研究也同样表明，小半径曲线与高事故率之间有内在的密切关系。车速和行车轨迹是车辆行驶状态的两种直观表现形式，驾驶员一般是依据道路的运行条件及车辆本身的性能来确定车速和行使路线，它们与实际道路交通条件所允许的速度与轨迹往往有偏差，这种偏差的大小直接关系到行车的可靠性。因此，系统地研究弯道交通事故形成机理并建立相关量化模型，意义重大。 本项目将交通事故分成会车事故、追尾事故、单车事故三种类型，从交通行为分析的角度，以轨迹交叉论为指导，研究弯道交通事故发生的影响因素及关系，分析弯道路段行车速度和轨迹的变化规律，分析交通事故发生的形成过程，建立各类型事故概率模型与事故严重度模型，并在实际道路路段的安全性分析与改善中进行验证。 研究成果能够为弯道路段交通安全性分析与评价、交通事故预测、交通安全改善提供新的可行方法与理论依据。

中文关键词： 交通事故；形成机理；弯道路段；事故概率模型；事故严重度模型

英文摘要： According to the statistics, in China, the number of traffic accidents in second-grade highway and below second-grade highway is about 70 percent of the total number of traffic accidents. The blind bend highway section is the one of five section of the road with frequent traffic accidents. The research results also demonstrate that, there is a close relationship between small horizontal curvature radius and frequent traffic accidents. As well as we known, velocity and wheel path are the two manifestation style of vehicle traveling state. When the driver drives a car, he would better choose the velocity and track based on the conditions of highway and the vehicle capability. However, his choice would be a different with the velocity and track which are allowed by conditions of roads and traffic. And the difference could determine the reliability of vehicle in highway. So, it's very necessary to do systematic research and build quantitative model on the mechanism of traffic accidents in blend. In this project, traffic accidents would be devided into three types including head-on accident, rear-end accident, and single vehicle accident. From the view of traffic behaviours analysis, based on tracks crossing theories, the impact factors and relationship of traffic accidents in blend are researched, the process of traffic accidents in blend are built, and some kinds of traffic accidents probaility model and severity model are putford. All research results are validated in safety analysis and improvement in highway sections. The research results could be a new methods and theory for evaluation of traffic safety, forecast of traffic accidents and improvements of traffic safety in blend.

英文关键词： traffic accident; mechanism of traffic accident; blind bend;accident probaility model; accident severity model