气温变化的时间非对称性与不可逆性研究

项目名称： 气温变化的时间非对称性与不可逆性研究

项目编号： No.41475048

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 付遵涛

作者单位： 北京大学

项目金额： 90万元

中文摘要： 气温在增温与降温等变化上存在明显的时间非对称性。本项目将采用新的不敏感依赖于背景趋势的分析方法准确地量化气温变化在时间上的非对称性，系统研究气温变化这种时间非对称性的组成结构和形成机理。既分析日平均气温的变化，也分析日最高气温和日最低气温的变化，并研究三者变化在时间上非对称性的异同。而研究的非对称性包括升温与降温变化整体的非对称性、不同时间段内升降温变化的非对称性与变化在一定时段内时间方向的非对称性（或不可逆性）。在时间尺度上，既研究短期天气尺度上变化非对称性，也探索中长期天气或短期气候尺度上气温变化的非对称性。在分析资料上，既分析台站观测和再分析序列，也分析不同模式的输出序列。通过对比分析，研究不同时间尺度上变化时间非对称性的形成机制。并利用这些分析结果建立气温异常的随机模型，模拟出气温异常变化在时间上的非对称性。通过本项目的研究，给出气温变化在时间上的非对称性的完整认识。

中文关键词： 非线性动力学；气候变化；非对称；不可逆；气温变化

英文摘要： The warming and cooling in the air temperature anomaly variations are obviously temporally asymmetric, new analysis methods not sensitive to the background trend will be adopted in this project to accurately quantify temporal asymmetry in temperature variations, and to investigate systematically the basic structures and physical mechanisms of this kind temporal asymmetry in temperature variations. The investigations include non only analysis of daily mean temperature variations, also analysis of daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature variations, such as to study the similarities and differences among their temporal asymmetries. The temporal asymmetry in temperature variations deal with the warming and cooling asymmetry in the whole time span, the asymmetry during the different periods, and also asymmetry in the time direction of temperature variations within a certain period (or irreversibility). Through these analyses, we want to derive temporal asymmetry not only on the short-term weather scale, also on the long-term weather or short-term climate scales. The used data are from not only observation and reanalysis records, also from different modeling outputs, through these comparative analyses, the physical mechanisms of temporal asymmetry will be explored for temperature variations on different time scales. Based on these results, a stochastic model will be constructed to simulate the temperature anomaly variations, where the temporal asymmetry will be reproduced. Through this project research, complete understanding will be reached on the temporal asymmetry in temperature variations.

英文关键词： Nonlinear Dynamics;Climate changes;asymmetry;irreversibility;air temperature variations