基于雷达测雨技术和数值模式模拟预报的流域洪水预报方法研究

项目名称： 基于雷达测雨技术和数值模式模拟预报的流域洪水预报方法研究

项目编号： No.41205086

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 大气科学学科

项目作者： 彭涛

作者单位： 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 为了增长洪水预报的预见期，提高预报精度，本课题以'引入定量降雨估算（QPE）和定量降雨预报（QPF）来提高洪水预报精度'为导向，围绕联合大气模式和水文模式这一核心实施实时洪水预报展开研究。通过利用与降水有关的多种气象观测信息（雷达，自动气象站等）以及中尺度数值模式对水文模型所需的降雨量进行估算预报，着重研究天气预报模式与水文模型之间时空尺度上的匹配问题,逐步缩小水文气象的尺度差异，在现实条件下开辟一条洪水预报研究中充分应用各种气象信息的途径，以改变目前水文模型中洪水预见期内降雨估计的落后方式，由此延长洪水预见期、提高预报精度，改善洪水预报效果，为增强水文气象专业气象服务的能力提供科技支撑。

中文关键词： 定量降水估算及预报；水文模型；水文气象耦合；降尺度；临界面雨量计算

英文摘要： In order to increase forecast period and improve the forecast accuracy in the flood forecast, 'To introduce the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE ) and quantitative precipitation forecasting ( QPF ) to improve the accuracy of flood forecast' is taken as the guide of the project, the project make the real-time flood forecast research through coupling atmosphere model and hydrological model. During the research, the variety of meteorological observation information (such as radar, rain-gauge) and meso-scale numerical model will be used to estimate and forecast precipitation for hydrological model, the research will focus on spatial and temporal matching problem between weather forecast model and hydrological model, narrow the hydrological and meteorological scale differences gradually, to open a channels for full application of various meteorological information in flood forecast in real conditions, to change the backward way on rainfall estimation and forecast in flood forecast period on the current hydrological model, thus to extend the forecasting period, improve the forecast accuracy, better the flood forecast effect, to provide scientific and technological support on enhancing the hydro-meteorological professional meteorological service capabilities.

英文关键词： QPE/QPF；hydorlogcial model；hydro- meteorological coupling technology；down-scaling；calculation for critical area rainfall