中国区域性热浪事件及其基于模式信息的预测技术初步研究

项目名称： 中国区域性热浪事件及其基于模式信息的预测技术初步研究

项目编号： No.41205039

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 大气科学学科

项目作者： 丁婷

作者单位： 国家气候中心

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 热浪是持续一段时间的大范围高温，有时还伴随高湿，其危害是多方面的。近年来极端热浪事件的频发，给社会、经济和自然造成了巨大影响。但目前相应的研究基础较少，对全球变暖背景下我国热浪事件的变化特征认识还较为有限，也缺乏对范围大、持续时间长的热浪过程的客观预报方法。本项目将首先利用中国近60年地面站点资料日值数据集对发生在我国的热浪事件进行系统分析，给出中国单站、区域"干热"型热浪和"闷热"型热浪事件的定义并分析其气候分布特征，为项目提供研究背景。然后通过对多个典型热浪事件的统计，分析和比较"干热"型热浪和"闷热"型热浪的同期、前期大气环流的异常特征，建立两类热浪发生的概念模型，对热浪的大气异常特征及可能的物理机制进行探索。在此基础上，利用国家气候中心月动力延伸预测模式产品，建立我国高温季节区域持续热浪过程的客观预测方法，为气候预测提供科学依据和技术支撑。

中文关键词： 热浪；趋势变化；诊断分析；预测技术；降尺度

英文摘要： The heat wave (HW) is commonly regarded as an extended time interval of abnormally and uncomfortably hot weather, with a wide range of hazards, sometimes accompanied by high humidity. In recent years, intense HWs affect many places over the world. Extreme HW events have wide ranging impacts on society, economy as well as on biophysical systems. However, there was not enough study on HWs in China, as research on changes in HW events in China on global warming was limited, and there was lack of objective prediction method for long-lasting and wide-ranging HW events. Based on homogenized historical datasets in China for recent 60 years, the HW in China will be investigated thoroughly. The definitions of spot and regional events of dry HWs and wet HWs will be given, and the geographical pattern and temporal variation of HWs by two definitions will be identified, and these provide research background for the project. The atmospheric circulation patterns in the same and early periods for dry HWs and wet HWs will be analyzed and compared by typical cases, and theoretical model for HWs by two definitions will be established separately. The analysis on characteristics and possible mechanism for HWs will provide a theoretical basis for HW prediction. Based on Dynamical Extension Regional Forecast Model (DERF) by National

英文关键词： heat wave；variation；diagnosis；climate prediction；downscaling