中国粮食生产消费协调度测定模型构建及实证研究

项目名称： 中国粮食生产消费协调度测定模型构建及实证研究

项目编号： No.41201599

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 吴建寨

作者单位： 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 保障粮食安全始终是我国经济社会持续发展的必然要求。近年来，粮食供需的结构性矛盾日益突出，已成为影响我国粮食安全的主要问题，亟需开展粮食生产消费协调的系统化研究。 本项目紧紧抓住粮食供需关系这一粮食安全的关键内容，构建我国粮食生产消费协调度测定模型，确定粮食生产消费协调性综合指标及关键指标的判定标准，多尺度、多维度定量评价我国粮食生产消费协调水平态势，解读我国粮食供需系统要素组成与内部秩序，并提出政策调控建议。该研究能深化与发展粮食安全预警理论体系，创新粮食安全评估技术，为提高国家对粮食供需态势的掌控能力提供支持，对稳定粮食市场、保障粮食安全、夯实社会经济发展基础具有重要的理论和实践意义。

中文关键词： 协调；粮食供需；评价；警度；政策

英文摘要： As the foundation of national development and social stability, food security is crucial to the national economy and the livelihood of people in China. In recent years, the structural contradiction is increasingly outstanding and plays an more important role to national food security. It is necessary to carry out systematical researches on the coordination evaluation between food consumption and food supply. This study focuses on the food supply and demand system to explore the food security by proposing the coordination evaluation model for gain production and consumption, and determining the standard both of integrated index and single index. We will carry out multi-dimension and multi-scale evaluation for the coordination level of gain production and consumption using established model, and explore the component elements and inner order of grain supply-demanding system in China. The policy suggestions would also be proposed for promoting the coordination level of gain production and consumption in the study. The study could benefit the development of early-warning theory and the innovation of evaluation technology in food security field, which would support the government to grasp the change trend of grain supply-demanding. It is also of great theoretical significance and practical value for maintaining th

英文关键词： coordination；food supply and demand；assessment；warning degree；policy