随机振动响应预测中的模型形式不确定性量化方法研究

项目名称： 随机振动响应预测中的模型形式不确定性量化方法研究

项目编号： No.U1530122

项目类型： 联合基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 袁修开

作者单位： 厦门大学

项目金额： 63万元

中文摘要： 在复杂工程结构系统中，仿真模型已经成为广泛应用的分析和设计手段，而仿真模型的不确定性是其中不可避免亦不可忽视的重要影响因素之一。本申请项目将对结构随机振动响应预测中模型形式不确定性的量化和传播进行研究。基于认知不确定性理论来建立模型形式不确定性的表征体系，发展单个模型的模型形式不确定性的校准量化方法，建立和完善针对多个模型的模型形式不确定性的融合量化方法，建立针对多来源多表征形式的混合不确定性的传播分析方法，研究建立模型不确定性的灵敏度分析和重要性测度分析方法，最后以典型螺栓连接件的随机振动响应预测为例，设计实验，论证所发展方法的合理性。通过本项目的研究，建立一套合理量化和传播模型形式不确定性的理论方法和技术，对工程复杂系统性能的合理预测和评估具有重要的理论基础意义和工程应用价值。

中文关键词： 不确定性分析；模型形式不确定性；模型预测；模型确认；随机振动

英文摘要： In complex engineering structural systems, simulation model have become a widely used analysis and design tool and model form uncertainty is an important factor that cannot be avoidable and neglectable. This project focuses on the quantification and propagation of the model form uncertainty in the prediction of structural random vibration response. Based the epistemic uncertainty theory, the characterization for model form uncertainty is investigated. The approaches for quantifying the model form uncertainty for single model are developed. The model form uncertainty for multiple models is quantified. Establish the propagation methods for mixed uncertainty of multiple sources and characteristics. Also, the approaches for sensitivity and importance measure are established. Finally, the prediction of the random vibration response of typical bolted joints is investigated with experiments to demonstrate the feasibility of the developed methods. Through the research of this project, a set of methods of quantification and propagation of model form uncertainty is established, and it has the significant theoretical value and engineering application value for reasonable evaluation and prediction for the behavior of complicate system.

英文关键词： analysis of uncertainty;model form uncertainty;model prediction;model validation;random vibration