基于国家间互动关系的全球尺度粮食供需过程模型研究

项目名称： 基于国家间互动关系的全球尺度粮食供需过程模型研究

项目编号： No.41271542

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 崔雪锋

作者单位： 北京师范大学

项目金额： 75万元

中文摘要： 粮食危机已经由传统意义上的粮食生产不足的危机转变成为从粮食生产、贸易到消费整个粮食产业过程的危机。粮食安全日趋复杂，已成为全球共同关注的区域核心问题之一。本研究基于全球与区域供需均衡理论构建一个新的粮食供需全过程模型，以145个国家为基本单元，通过人口、经济增长、消费结构改变来模拟粮食消费变化；通过耕地面积、单产和土地政策来模拟粮食生产；通过归一化贸易指标体系，假想的世界贸易总经销商和去价格化等一系列措施简化粮食贸易过程，提高模拟粮食贸易长期变化的能力；互动友好的模型发展平台和简易的模型设计理念为实现情景化模拟研究提供技术保障。利用该模型研究全球尺度驱动因子变化对中国粮食安全的影响及中国耕地政策的响应，并探索研究粮食安全模拟的新方法。

中文关键词： 粮食安全；全球变化；供需平衡；耕地资源；

英文摘要： Food risk has developed from traditional shortage of food production into risk of food system including food production, trade and consumption. As one of the key regional issues with global attention, food security becomes more and more complicated. In this study, a new food supply-demand system model will be developed basing on global and regional supply-demand balance. Changes of food consumption are calculated by population growth, changes of food consumption per capita associated with economic development. Changes of food production are determined by arable land areas, productivity and land use policy. Normalized trade index, imaginary global trade manager and de-priced trade rules are proposed to ease the complicated trade processes in order to improve the modeling capacity of long term food trade. A friendly interactive software platform and simple model design concept provide technological support for scenario studies. Applying the developed model in China, we could study the impact of global scale changes on food security in China and the possible adaptation options. This study will explore the new ideas of model development in food security.

英文关键词： food security；global change；supply-demand balance；arable land resources；