高效减灾与重建：地震灾害冲击与灾后重建绩效的影响因素及其作用机制研究——基于灾害周期的视角

项目名称： 高效减灾与重建：地震灾害冲击与灾后重建绩效的影响因素及其作用机制研究——基于灾害周期的视角

项目编号： No.71473022

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 陈升

作者单位： 重庆大学

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 我国地震灾害损失是国内各类灾害之最。资料显示,1970年云南7.7级地震造成约1.6万人死亡,但1964年美国8.8级地震死亡125人,相差近130倍。为何震级更大而冲击更小？震后，灾害冲击要在可能短时间内通过恢复重建来消除。1995年日本阪神7.3级地震恢复重建共花近10年,但2008年汶川8.0级地震3年完成。二者相差3倍多,为什么？ 如何理论解释以上地震冲击与恢复重建绩效差异？哪些因素造成并在何种程度上造成以上差异？有关因素对地震冲击、恢复重建绩效的影响和作用机制是什么？解决以上问题对高效减灾和重建有重要意义，但相关研究少见，因此这是本项目主要贡献。本研究在科学评价恢复重建绩效基础上，收集国内外宏观统计数据，实证研究灾害周期三阶段相关因素对地震冲击、灾后恢复重建绩效差异的影响及作用机制，对研究结果进行一致性分析，最后用典型案例补充检验实证研究结果。根据研究结论，提出政策建议。

中文关键词： 地震；灾害冲击；恢复重建；实证研究；作用机制

英文摘要： The losses of earthquakes in China are the heaviest among all types of disasters. The data shows that in 1970, a 7.7 Richter Scale quake struck Yunnan, China, causing 16,000 deaths, but in 1964, a 8.8 Richter Scale quake hit Alaska, the U.S., causing only 125 deaths, which is almost 130 times less than the former. Why did the earthquake in Alaska cause fewer deaths with greater magnitude? After earthquakes, the impacts of disasters need to be gradually eliminated as quickly as possible through the process of recovery. In 1995, the recovery from a 7.3 Richter Scale earthquake occurred in Osaka and Kobe, Japan, took almost 10 years, but the recovery from a 8.0 Richter Scale earthquake occurred in Wenchuan, China, only took less than 3 years. The former is three times than the latter, why? How are the above differences of earthquake effects and the recovery performances explained theoretically? What factors and to what extent cause these differences? What are the relationships between the impact of earthquake, recovery performance and their influences? Solving these problems has great significance for efficient mitigation and recovery. However, related researches are scarce, therefore, answering the questions is a major contribution of this project.From the perspective of disaster cycle and based on the scientific evaluation of the recovery performance and the available data, this research studies the influencing factors of the impacts of earthquake and recovery performance and their relationships among these influencing factors, which will be supplemented by case studies. Some policy recommendations are put forward finally.

英文关键词： earthquake;disaster effect;recovery;empirical study;acting mechanism