能源与气候变化政策建模中要素替代弹性研究

项目名称： 能源与气候变化政策建模中要素替代弹性研究

项目编号： No.71203092

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 查冬兰

作者单位： 南京航空航天大学

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 如何实现经济增长与节能减排的双赢一直是理论和实践中的难题，本课题以弹性理论为基础,以能源与非能源要素替代弹性为立足点，围绕替代关系的前因后果展开研究。重点定量能源要素自价格弹性，能源与非能源要素之间的对偶弹性、偏弹性、毛弹性、净弹性、对称和非对称弹性。以此为基础，分析能源效率与能源替代弹性的门限特征，通过Welsch指数分解能源替代弹性对碳强度的影响。运用Talyor级数线性化方法重置能源作为投入要素下的CES生产函数形式，并应用于CGE框架下能源效率碳减排的绩效问题，以检验能源替代弹性在能源和气候变化政策宏观经济研究中的影响程度。预期的创新表现在：（1）考虑技术无效率和配置无效率情形下，我国宏观和工业行业能源与非能源的替代弹性表现；（2）将预算效应和替代效应引入碳强度的分解；（3）捕捉不同嵌套CES函数形式下能源效率碳减排的影响；（4）从能源要素替代关系的视角指导节能减排政策的选择。

中文关键词： 替代弹性；能源效率；常替代弹性；有偏性技术进步；

英文摘要： After over two decades fast economic growth, China is increasing constrained by the lack of energy which is vital to support a sustainable development of our country. It is difficult to achieve the win-win for economy growth, energy saving and carbon reduction. The present program bases on the substitution theroy，establishes energy and non-energy substitution and revolves its causes and effects. It focuses on the cross-price elasticity, dual elasticity, partial elasticity, gross elasticity, net elasticity, symmetric and asymmetric elasticity. Based upon the above analysis,it quantifies the threshold characteristics of energy efficiency on energy substitution and detects the effects of substitution on carbon intensity by Welsch decompostion method. Furthermore, Talyor series are applied to form the CES production function specifications with considering energy as input. And it is used to analyze the perfomance of energy efficincy improvement on carbon reduction by computable general equilibrium model. With all the efforts above, our aim is to find the effects of energy substitution on macroeconomic result of energy and climate change research. The forthcoming graceful thoughts include: (1) quantifying the substitution elasticities of energy and non-energy factors and considering that under the cases of technique

英文关键词： Substitution Elasticities；Energy Efficiency；Constant Elasticity of Substitution；The biased technological progress；