灾变环境下土石坝多源异构信息融合方法研究

项目名称： 灾变环境下土石坝多源异构信息融合方法研究

项目编号： No.51209144

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 水利科学与海洋工程学科

项目作者： 李子阳

作者单位： 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 灾变环境致灾影响的复杂性及不确定性，使得土石坝安全监控信息具有明显的多源异构特征，增加了信息处理与决策的难度。为此，首先基于典型灾变环境及其对工程结构致灾影响的调研分析，采用K-L信息距离等描述灾变环境对土石坝结构性态演化的影响，并构建时序模型，实现灾变环境影响的实时模拟；继而对灾变环境下由现场监测、检测、巡查及水文气象预测预报、工程运行调度等多源渠道所获取的土石坝安全监控信息，根据其不确定性特征基于盲数理论进行量化分析，并结合Petri网络等构建土石坝多源监控盲信息的分层混融分析模型，实现工程定性与定量信息的融合；在此基础上，辨析灾变环境工程致灾信息及土石坝监控盲信息的异构特征，结合模糊推理与Bayes网络等技术，构建土石坝多源异构信息融合分析模型，实现融入灾变环境影响的土石坝多源信息的集成与重构。该项目对灾变环境下进行土石坝工程的风险分析及决策，具有重要的理论和现实意义。

中文关键词： 灾变环境；土石坝；统计诊断；盲融合；模糊推理

英文摘要： For the complex and uncertain influence of cataclysmic environment, the dam safety monitoring information are obviously multi-source and heterogeneous, which increase the difficulty of information processing and decision making. Therefore, typical cataclysmic environment would be chosen for investigation, and the evolvement influence on structural condition of earth-rock dam would be described with the K-L information distance. Then the time-series model would be established to realize the real-time simulation of cataclysmic environmental influence. Subsequently, based on blind number theory, the multi-source monitoring project information would be quantitatively analyzed according to their characteristics of uncertainty, such as information obtained from field monitoring, inspection, detection and hydrologic meteorological forecast, project operation scheduling and etc. Then combined with the Petri network, the layered mixed fusion analysis model of dam multi-source monitoring blind information would be made up for the qualitative and quantitative data fusion.On the basis of above, the heterogeneous characteristics of project hazard-formation information and dam monitoring blind information would be analyzed. Then with combination of fuzzy reasoning and Bayes network technology, the fusion analytical model of m

英文关键词： catastrophic environment；embankment dam；statistical diagnostics；blind fusion；fuzzy reasoning