We introduce a parsimonious game-theoretic behavioral--epidemic model, in which an interplay of realistic factors shapes the co-evolution of individual decision-making and epidemics on a network. Although such a co-evolution is deeply intertwined in the real-world, existing models schematize population behavior as instantaneously reactive, thus being unable to capture human behavior in the long term. Our model offers a unified framework to model and predict complex emergent phenomena, including successful collective responses, periodic oscillations, and resurgent epidemic outbreaks, as illustrated through two real-world case studies.
翻译:我们引入了一种模糊的游戏理论-理论-行为-流行病模式,其中现实因素的相互作用决定了个人决策的共同演变和网络上的流行病。 尽管这种共同演变在现实世界中紧密交织在一起,但现有的模式将人口行为描绘成即时反应,从而无法长期捕捉人类行为。 我们的模式提供了一个统一的框架来模拟和预测复杂的突发现象,包括成功的集体反应、周期性振荡和再次爆发流行病,正如两个现实世界案例研究所显示的那样。