With climate change accelerating, the frequency of climate disasters is expected to increase in the decades to come. There is ongoing debate as to how different climatic regions will be affected by such an acceleration. In this paper, we describe a model for predicting the frequency of climate disasters and the severity of the resulting number of deaths. The frequency of disasters is described as a Poisson process driven by aggregate CO2 emissions. The severity of disasters is described using a generalized Pareto distribution driven by the trend in regional real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We predict the death toll for different types of climate disasters based on the projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the population, the regional real GDP per capita, and aggregate CO2 emissions in the "sustainable" and "business-as-usual" baseline scenarios.
翻译:随着气候变化的加速,预计未来几十年气候灾害的频率将会增加。关于不同气候区域将如何受到这种加速的影响,目前正在进行辩论。在本文件中,我们描述了一个预测气候灾害频率和所造成死亡人数严重程度的模式。灾害的频率被描述为由二氧化碳排放总量驱动的普瓦松进程。灾害的严重性被描述为使用由区域实际人均国内生产总值(GDP)趋势驱动的普遍Pareto分布。我们根据政府间气候变化专门委员会对人口、区域实际人均GDP以及“可持续”和“一切照旧”基线情景中二氧化碳排放总量所作的预测,预测了不同类型气候灾害的死亡人数。