Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a disruptive technology, promising to grant a significant economic and strategic advantage to the nations that harness its power. China, with its recent push towards AI adoption, is challenging the U.S.'s position as the global leader in this field. Given AI's massive potential, as well as the fierce geopolitical tensions between the two nations, a number of policies have been put in place that discourage AI scientists from migrating to, or collaborating with, the other country. However, the extents of such brain drain and cross-border collaboration are not fully understood. Here, we analyze a dataset of over 350,000 AI scientists and 5,000,000 AI papers. We find that, since the year 2000, China and the U.S. have been leading the field in terms of impact, novelty, productivity, and workforce. Most AI scientists who migrate to China come from the U.S., and most who migrate to the U.S. come from China, highlighting a notable brain drain in both directions. Upon migrating from one country to the other, scientists continue to collaborate frequently with the origin country. Although the number of collaborations between the two countries has been increasing since the dawn of the millennium, such collaborations continue to be relatively rare. A matching experiment reveals that the two countries have always been more impactful when collaborating than when each of them works without the other. These findings suggest that instead of suppressing cross-border migration and collaboration between the two nations, the field could benefit from promoting such activities.
翻译:摘要:人工智能(AI)已成为一项颠覆性技术,为掌握其力量的国家提供了重大的经济和战略优势。中国近来推进AI采用,正在挑战美国在这一领域的全球领导地位。鉴于AI的巨大潜力,以及两国之间激烈的地缘政治紧张关系,已出台了许多政策,阻止AI科学家向另一个国家移民或进行合作。但这种人口流动和跨境合作的程度还没有完全被了解。在这里,我们分析了超过35万名AI科学家和500万篇AI论文的数据集。我们发现,自2000年以来,中国和美国一直在影响力、创新性、生产力和劳动力方面领先该领域。大多数移民到中国的AI科学家来自美国,而移民到美国的大部分来自中国,突显了双方的显着人口流失。从一个国家迁移到另一个国家后,科学家继续与原籍国频繁合作。虽然两国之间的合作次数自千禧年初以来不断增加,但这样的合作仍然相对罕见。一项匹配实验揭示,两国在合作时总是比单独工作时更有影响力。这些发现表明,与其压制两国之间的人口流动和合作,倒不如促进这些活动,这将有益于该领域的发展。