Despite growing interest in probabilistic modeling approaches and availability of learning tools, people with no or less statistical background feel hesitant to use them. There is need for tools for communicating probabilistic models to less experienced users more intuitively to help them build, validate, use effectively or trust probabilistic models. Users' comprehension of probabilistic models is vital in these cases and interactive visualizations could enhance it. Although there are various studies evaluating interactivity in Bayesian reasoning and available tools for visualizing the sample-based distributions, we focus specifically on evaluating the effect of interaction on users' comprehension of probabilistic models' structure. We conducted a user study based on our Interactive Pair Plot for visualizing models' distribution and conditioning the sample space graphically. Our results suggest that improvements in the understanding of the interaction group are most pronounced for more exotic structures, such as hierarchical models or unfamiliar parameterizations in comparison to the static group. As the detail of the inferred information increases, interaction does not lead to considerably longer response times. Finally, interaction improves users' confidence.
翻译:尽管人们日益关注概率模型方法以及学习工具的可用性,但没有或没有统计背景的人对使用这些工具感到犹豫不决。需要各种工具,向不太有经验的用户更直观地传达概率模型,帮助他们建立、验证、有效使用或信任概率模型。在这些情况下,用户对概率模型的理解至关重要,互动视觉化可以加强这种理解。尽管有各种研究评估贝叶西亚的交互性推理和可视觉化样本分布的现有工具,但我们特别侧重于评价互动对用户理解概率模型结构的影响。我们根据互动的“空气模型图”开展了一项用户研究,以图像化模型分布和图像化的方式调整样本空间。我们的结果显示,互动组理解的改进对于更外来的结构最为明显,例如等级模型或与静态组相比不熟悉的参数化。由于推断信息的细节增加,互动不会导致更长时间的反应。最后,互动提高了用户的信心。