Deep transformation models for functional outcome prediction after acute ischemic stroke

For many medical applications, interpretable models with a high prediction performance are sought. Often, those models are required to handle semi-structured data like tabular and image data. We show how to apply deep transformation models (DTMs) for distributional regression which fulfill these requirements. DTMs allow the data analyst to specify (deep) neural networks for different input modalities making them applicable to various research questions. DTMs can provide interpretable effect estimates like statistical models while they can achieve the state-of-the-art prediction performance of deep neural networks. In addition, the construction of ensembles of DTMs that retain model structure and interpretability allows quantifying epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. In this study, we compare several DTMs, including baseline-adjusted models, trained on a semi-structured data set of 407 stroke patients with the aim to predict ordinal functional outcome three months after stroke. We follow statistical principles of model-building to achieve an adequate trade-off between interpretability and flexibility while we assess the relative importance of the involved data modalities. We evaluate the models for an ordinal and dichotomized version of the outcome as used in clinical practice. We show that both, tabular clinical and brain imaging data, are useful for functional outcome prediction, while models based on tabular data only outperform those based on imaging data only. There is no substantial evidence for improved prediction when combining both data modalities. Overall, we highlight that DTMs provide a powerful, interpretable approach to analyzing semi-structured data and that they have the potential to support clinical decision making.