Calibration and Correctness of Language Models for Code

Machine learning models are widely used but can also often be wrong. Users would benefit from a reliable indication of whether a given output from a given model should be trusted, so a rational decision can be made whether to use the output or not. For example, outputs can be associated with a confidence measure; if this confidence measure is strongly associated with likelihood of correctness, then the model is said to be well-calibrated. In this case, for example, high-confidence outputs could be safely accepted, and low-confidence outputs rejected. Calibration has so far been studied in mostly non-generative (e.g., classification) settings, especially in Software Engineering. However, generated code can quite often be wrong: Developers need to know when they should e.g., directly use, use after careful review, or discard model-generated code; thus Calibration is vital in generative settings. However, the notion of correctness of generated code is non-trivial, and thus so is Calibration. In this paper we make several contributions. We develop a framework for evaluating the Calibration of code-generating models. We consider several tasks, correctness criteria, datasets, and approaches, and find that by and large generative code models are not well-calibrated out of the box. We then show how Calibration can be improved, using standard methods such as Platt scaling. Our contributions will lead to better-calibrated decision-making in the current use of code generated by language models, and offers a framework for future research to further improve calibration methods for generative models in Software Engineering.