There is significant interest in deploying machine learning algorithms for diagnostic radiology, as modern learning techniques have made it possible to detect abnormalities in medical images within minutes. While machine-assisted diagnoses cannot yet reliably replace human reviews of images by a radiologist, they could inform prioritization rules for determining the order by which to review patient cases so that patients with time-sensitive conditions could benefit from early intervention. We study this scenario by formulating it as a learning-augmented online scheduling problem. We are given information about each arriving patient's urgency level in advance, but these predictions are inevitably error-prone. In this formulation, we face the challenges of decision making under imperfect information, and of responding dynamically to prediction error as we observe better data in real-time. We propose a simple online policy and show that this policy is in fact the best possible in certain stylized settings. We also demonstrate that our policy achieves the two desiderata of online algorithms with predictions: consistency (performance improvement with prediction accuracy) and robustness (protection against the worst case). We complement our theoretical findings with empirical evaluations of the policy under settings that more accurately reflect clinical scenarios in the real world.
翻译:由于现代学习技术使得能在几分钟内发现医疗图像中的异常现象。虽然机器辅助诊断尚不能可靠地取代放射学家对图像的人类审查,但它们可以为确定病人病例审查顺序的优先顺序规则提供参考,以便有时间敏感条件的病人能够从早期干预中受益。我们通过将这种设想方案拟订成一个学习强化的在线日程安排问题来研究这种设想方案。我们事先获得关于每个到达病人紧急程度的信息,但这些预测不可避免地容易出错。在这种表述中,我们面临着在不完善的信息下决策的挑战,以及在实时观测更好的数据时对预测错误作出动态反应的挑战。我们提出了一个简单的在线政策,并表明在某些结构化的环境中,这一政策事实上是最好的。我们还表明,我们的政策实现了两种在线算法的偏斜,其预测是:一致性(业绩提高预测准确性)和稳健性(保护免受最坏的情况)。我们用理论结论来补充我们对政策在更准确地反映现实世界临床情景的环境中进行的经验评估。