Transformer models have become increasingly popular in financial applications, yet their potential risk making and biases remain under-explored. The purpose of this work is to audit the reliance of the model on volatile data for decision-making, and quantify how the frequency of price movements affects the model's prediction confidence. We employ a transformer model for prediction, and introduce a metric based on Partial Information Decomposition (PID) to measure the influence of each asset on the model's decision making. Our analysis reveals two key observations: first, the model disregards data volatility entirely, and second, it is biased toward data with lower-frequency price movements.
翻译:Transformer模型在金融应用中日益普及,但其潜在的决策风险与偏差仍未得到充分探究。本研究旨在审计模型对波动性数据的决策依赖,并量化价格变动频率对模型预测置信度的影响。我们采用Transformer模型进行预测,并引入基于偏信息分解(PID)的度量指标,以衡量各资产对模型决策的影响。分析揭示了两项关键发现:首先,模型完全忽略了数据波动性;其次,其决策偏向于价格变动频率较低的数据。