Structural causal models (SCMs) provide a principled approach to identifying causation from observational and experimental data in disciplines ranging from economics to medicine. However, SCMs, which is typically represented as graphical models, cannot rely only on data, rather require support of domain knowledge. A key challenge in this context is the absence of a methodological framework for encoding priors (background knowledge) into causal models in a systematic manner. We propose an abstraction called causal knowledge hierarchy (CKH) for encoding priors into causal models. Our approach is based on the foundation of "levels of evidence" in medicine, with a focus on confidence in causal information. Using CKH, we present a methodological framework for encoding causal priors from various information sources and combining them to derive an SCM. We evaluate our approach on a simulated dataset and demonstrate overall performance compared to the ground truth causal model with sensitivity analysis.
翻译:结构性因果模型(SCMs)是查明从经济学到医学等学科的观察和实验数据的因果关系的原则方法,然而,通常以图形模型为代表的SCMs不能仅仅依靠数据,而是需要领域知识的支持,在这方面的一个关键挑战是缺乏一个系统化地将前科(背景知识)编码成因果模型的方法框架。我们建议一种抽象概念,称为因果知识等级(CKH),用于将前科编码成因果模型。我们的方法基于医学中的“证据水平”的基础,重点是对因果信息的信心。我们利用CKH,为各种信息来源的因果前科编码提出了一个方法框架,并将它们合并成SCM。我们用敏感分析来评估模拟数据集的方法,并展示与地面因果模型相比的整体性表现。