Much of our experiments are designed to uncover the cause(s) and effect(s) behind a data generating mechanism (i.e., phenomenon) we happen to be interested in. Uncovering such relationships allows us to identify the true working of a phenomenon and, most importantly, articulate a model that may enable us to further explore the phenomenon on hand and/or allow us to predict it accurately. Fundamentally, such models are likely to be derived via a causal approach (as opposed to an observational or empirical mean). In this approach, causal discovery is required to create a causal model, which can then be applied to infer the influence of interventions, and answer any hypothetical questions (i.e., in the form of What ifs? Etc.) that we might have. This paper builds a case for causal discovery and causal inference and contrasts that against traditional machine learning approaches; all from a civil and structural engineering perspective. More specifically, this paper outlines the key principles of causality and the most commonly used algorithms and packages for causal discovery and causal inference. Finally, this paper also presents a series of examples and case studies of how causal concepts can be adopted for our domain.
翻译:我们的许多实验都旨在揭示我们碰巧感兴趣的数据产生机制(即现象)背后的原因和效果。这种关系的发现使我们能够确定一个现象的真正作用,最重要的是,阐明一个可能使我们能够进一步探讨手头现象和/或使我们能够准确预测这一现象的模式。从根本上说,这些模型可能通过因果方法(而不是观察或经验平均值)产生。在这个方法中,因果发现需要产生一个因果模型,然后可以用来推断干预的影响,并回答我们可能存在的任何假设问题(即,以如果的形式?Etc. ) 。本文为因果发现和因果推断和因果推断提供了依据,并与传统机器学习方法形成对比;所有这些都来自民事和结构工程学角度。更具体地说,本文件概述了因果关系的关键原则以及最常用的因果发现和因果推断的算法和包。最后,本文还介绍了一系列实例和案例研究,说明如何将因果概念用于我们领域。