Neural Differential Equations (NDEs) excel at modeling continuous-time dynamics, effectively handling challenges such as irregular observations, missing values, and noise. Despite their advantages, NDEs face a fundamental challenge in adopting dropout, a cornerstone of deep learning regularization, making them susceptible to overfitting. To address this research gap, we introduce Continuum Dropout, a universally applicable regularization technique for NDEs built upon the theory of alternating renewal processes. Continuum Dropout formulates the on-off mechanism of dropout as a stochastic process that alternates between active (evolution) and inactive (paused) states in continuous time. This provides a principled approach to prevent overfitting and enhance the generalization capabilities of NDEs. Moreover, Continuum Dropout offers a structured framework to quantify predictive uncertainty via Monte Carlo sampling at test time. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that Continuum Dropout outperforms existing regularization methods for NDEs, achieving superior performance on various time series and image classification tasks. It also yields better-calibrated and more trustworthy probability estimates, highlighting its effectiveness for uncertainty-aware modeling.
翻译:神经微分方程(NDEs)在建模连续时间动态方面表现卓越,能够有效处理不规则观测、缺失值和噪声等挑战。尽管具有这些优势,NDEs在采用Dropout这一深度学习正则化的核心技术上仍面临根本性挑战,使其容易过拟合。为填补这一研究空白,我们提出了连续体Dropout——一种基于交替更新过程理论、适用于NDEs的通用正则化技术。连续体Dropout将Dropout的开关机制建模为在连续时间中交替处于激活(演化)与非激活(暂停)状态的随机过程。这为预防过拟合和增强NDEs的泛化能力提供了理论依据。此外,连续体Dropout通过测试时的蒙特卡洛采样,为量化预测不确定性提供了结构化框架。大量实验表明,连续体Dropout在多种时间序列和图像分类任务上优于现有NDEs正则化方法,取得了更优的性能。同时,该方法能产生校准更佳、更可信的概率估计,突显了其在不确定性感知建模中的有效性。