Expressway traffic congestion severely reduces travel efficiency and hinders regional connectivity. Existing "detection-prediction" systems have critical flaws: low vehicle perception accuracy under occlusion and loss of long-sequence dependencies in congestion forecasting. This study proposes an integrated technical framework to resolve these issues.For traffic flow perception, two baseline algorithms were optimized. Traditional YOLOv11 was upgraded to YOLOv11-DIoU by replacing GIoU Loss with DIoU Loss, and DeepSort was improved by fusing Mahalanobis (motion) and cosine (appearance) distances. Experiments on Chang-Shen Expressway videos showed YOLOv11-DIoU achieved 95.7\% mAP (6.5 percentage points higher than baseline) with 5.3\% occlusion miss rate. DeepSort reached 93.8\% MOTA (11.3 percentage points higher than SORT) with only 4 ID switches. Using the Greenberg model (for 10-15 vehicles/km high-density scenarios), speed and density showed a strong negative correlation (r=-0.97), conforming to traffic flow theory. For congestion warning, a GRU-Attention model was built to capture congestion precursors. Trained 300 epochs with flow, density, and speed, it achieved 99.7\% test accuracy (7-9 percentage points higher than traditional GRU). In 10-minute advance warnings for 30-minute congestion, time error was $\leq$ 1 minute. Validation with an independent video showed 95\% warning accuracy, over 90\% spatial overlap of congestion points, and stable performance in high-flow ($>$5 vehicles/second) scenarios.This framework provides quantitative support for expressway congestion control, with promising intelligent transportation applications.
翻译:高速公路交通拥堵严重降低了出行效率并阻碍区域连通性。现有的“检测-预测”系统存在关键缺陷:遮挡条件下车辆感知精度低,以及拥堵预测中长序列依赖关系的丢失。本研究提出了一种集成技术框架以解决这些问题。针对交通流感知,优化了两种基线算法:将传统YOLOv11升级为YOLOv11-DIoU(用DIoU损失函数替换GIoU损失函数),并通过融合马氏距离(运动)与余弦距离(外观)改进了DeepSort。在长深高速公路视频数据上的实验表明,YOLOv11-DIoU实现了95.7%的mAP(较基线提升6.5个百分点),遮挡漏检率为5.3%;DeepSort达到93.8%的MOTA(较SORT提升11.3个百分点),仅出现4次ID切换。使用Greenberg模型(针对10-15辆/公里的高密度场景),速度与密度呈现强负相关性(r=-0.97),符合交通流理论。针对拥堵预警,构建了GRU-Attention模型以捕捉拥堵前兆特征。基于流量、密度和速度数据训练300轮后,模型测试准确率达99.7%(较传统GRU提升7-9个百分点)。在提前10分钟预警30分钟拥堵的测试中,时间误差≤1分钟。独立视频验证显示预警准确率为95%,拥堵点空间重叠度超过90%,且在高流量(>5辆/秒)场景下性能稳定。该框架为高速公路拥堵管控提供了量化支持,在智能交通领域具有广阔应用前景。