Because a fast vaccination rollout against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is critical to restore daily life and avoid virus mutations, it is tempting to have a relaxed vaccination-administration management system. However, a robust management system can support the enforcement of preventive measures, and in turn, reduce incidence and deaths. Here, we model a trustable and reliable management system based on blockchain for vaccine distribution by extending the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery (SEIR) model. The model includes prevention measures such as mask-wearing, social distance, vaccination rate, and vaccination efficiency. It also considers negative social behavior, such as violations of social distance and attempts of using illegitimate vaccination proofs. By evaluating the model, we show that the proposed system can reduce up to 2.5 million cases and half a million deaths in the most demanding scenarios.
翻译:由于对2019年科罗纳病毒(COVID-19)的快速疫苗接种对于恢复日常生活和避免病毒突变至关重要,因此有一个宽松的疫苗接种-行政管理制度很诱人。然而,一个强有力的管理系统可以支持预防性措施的实施,进而降低发病率和死亡率。在这里,我们通过扩展可感知-受辐射-感染-康复(SEIr)模式,以疫苗分发的链条为基础,构建一个可信赖和可靠的管理系统。该模式包括了蒙面、社会距离、疫苗接种率和疫苗接种效率等预防措施。它也考虑到消极的社会行为,例如侵犯社会距离和试图使用非法接种证明。我们通过评估该模式,可以表明拟议的系统可以在最困难的情况下减少250万病例和50万人死亡。