Opinions are an integral part of how we perceive the world and each other. They shape collective action, playing a role in democratic processes, the evolution of norms, and cultural change. For decades, researchers in the social and natural sciences have tried to describe how shifting individual perspectives and social exchange lead to archetypal states of public opinion like consensus and polarization. Here we review some of the many contributions to the field, focusing both on idealized models of opinion dynamics, and attempts at validating them with observational data and controlled sociological experiments. By further closing the gap between models and data, these efforts may help us understand how to face current challenges that require the agreement of large groups of people in complex scenarios, such as economic inequality, climate change, and the ongoing fracture of the sociopolitical landscape.
翻译:意见是我们看待世界和彼此的方式不可分割的一部分,它们形成集体行动,在民主进程、规范的演变和文化变革中发挥作用。几十年来,社会和自然科学的研究人员试图描述个人观点和社会交流的变化如何导致形成共识和两极分化等古老的舆论状态。这里我们审视了对实地的许多贡献,既注重理想化的舆论动态模式,又试图用观察数据和受控制的社会实验来验证它们。通过进一步缩小模型与数据之间的差距,这些努力可能有助于我们了解如何应对当前挑战,这些挑战需要在经济不平等、气候变化等复杂情况下获得大批民众的同意,以及社会政治环境的持续分裂。