Many widely used models amount to an elaborate means of making up numbers--but once a number has been produced, it tends to be taken seriously and its source (the model) is rarely examined carefully. Many widely used models have little connection to the real-world phenomena they purport to explain. Common steps in modeling to support policy decisions, such as putting disparate things on the same scale, may conflict with reality. Not all costs and benefits can be put on the same scale, not all uncertainties can be expressed as probabilities, and not all model parameters measure what they purport to measure. These ideas are illustrated with examples from seismology, wind-turbine bird deaths, soccer penalty cards, gender bias in academia, and climate policy.
翻译:许多广泛使用的模型相当于一种复杂的数字构成手段,但一旦生成了一个数字,往往会受到认真对待,其来源(模型)很少得到仔细研究,许多广泛使用的模型与它们想要解释的现实世界现象几乎没有什么联系。支持政策决策的共同建模步骤,如将不同的东西放在同一规模上,可能与现实相冲突。并非所有的成本和效益都可以放在同一个规模上,并非所有的不确定性都可以被表述为概率,也不是所有模型参数都能够衡量它们想要衡量什么。这些想法用地震学、风轮鸟死亡、足球惩罚卡、学术界的性别偏见和气候政策等例子来说明。