Analysis of Hydrogen Production Costs across the United States and over the next 30 years

Hydrogen can play an important role for decarbonization. While hydrogen is usually produced through SMR, it can also be produced through water electrolysis which is cleaner. The relative cost and carbon intensity of hydrogen production through SMR and electrolysis vary throughout the United States because of differences in the grid. While many hydrogen cost models exist, no regional hydrogen study has been conducted across the US. We studied how the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) and carbon intensity for producing hydrogen vary across the US. We looked at electrolysis technologies (Alkaline, PEM, and SOEC) and compared them to SMR. In 2020, SMR with 90 percent CCUS has a lower average LCOH and carbon intensity for hydrogen production than electrolysis by SOEC. For states with cleaner grids, hydrogen produced through SOEC has a lower carbon intensity than hydrogen produced using SMR with 90 percent CCUS. Washington has one of the lowest carbon footprints and the lowest LCOH to produce hydrogen through electrolysis (alkaline). We predict that the LCOH for hydrogen production will be 3.2 USD per kg for Alkaline, 3.1 USD per kg for PEM, and 2.6 USD per kg for SOEC by 2050 with constant electricity prices. These projected LCOHs are still higher than the LCOH for hydrogen produced through SMR with 90 percent CCUS. If electricity costs decrease to 2c per kWh, we expect to reach cost-parity with SMR with 90 percent CCUS. The results suggest that significant investment in decarbonizing the grid and lowering the cost of electricity needs to be made to make electrolysis more competitive compared to SMR.