Evaluating Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Methods for the Application in Autonomous Driving

In this paper, the state of the art in the field of pedestrian trajectory prediction is evaluated alongside the constant velocity model (CVM) with respect to its applicability in autonomous vehicles. The evaluation is conducted on the widely-used ETH/UCY dataset where the Average Displacement Error (ADE) and the Final Displacement Error (FDE) are reported. To align with requirements in real-world applications, modifications are made to the input features of the initially proposed models. An ablation study is conducted to examine the influence of the observed motion history on the prediction performance, thereby establishing a better understanding of its impact. Additionally, the inference time of each model is measured to evaluate the scalability of each model when confronted with varying amounts of agents. The results demonstrate that simple models remain competitive when generating single trajectories, and certain features commonly thought of as useful have little impact on the overall performance across different architectures. Based on these findings, recommendations are proposed to guide the future development of trajectory prediction algorithms.