基于群智能的突发事件区域人群疏散模型研究

项目名称： 基于群智能的突发事件区域人群疏散模型研究

项目编号： No.71273188

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 王坚

作者单位： 同济大学

项目金额： 56万元

中文摘要： 突发事件人群疏散模型是科学制定安全、高效疏散策略的分析基础。现有人群疏散模型尚未较好地解决微观与宏观之间的集成问题，未充分考虑小群体聚集疏散现象及引导信息作用。本项目结合突发事件灾害模型，分析个体疏散及小群体聚集疏散行为特征，将疏散个体和小群体抽象为不同粒径的智能粒子，研究不同条件下粒径变化规律；针对突发事件下人群逃逸、引导及避障行为，采用粒子群觅食算法、蜂群引导算法及鱼群避障算法三种群智能方法，构建基于群智能的突发事件区域人群疏散模型，包含人群逃逸模型、人群引导行为模型及人群避障行为模型。研究成果可实现微观－宏观统一框架下的人群疏散模型，为应急管理中的公众保护研究提供科学的理论与方法支持。

中文关键词： 应急管理；人群疏散模型；粒子群逃逸模型；仿真推演；

英文摘要： Emergency evacuation model is the analytical foundation of formulating safe and efficient evacuation strategies scientifically. The existing evacuation models neither solve the problems of integrating both micro and macro models well nor take account of the grouping behavior and the effect of crowd guidance information. According to the emergency disaster model, this project analyzes the behavior characteristic of individual and group, abstracts them as intelligent particles with different size and studies the law of size variation in different conditions. Considering the crowd evacuation behavior of escaping, guidance and obstacle-avoidance in emergency, three methods of the swarm intelligence are adopted, namely particle swarm optimization algorithm, artificial bee colony algorithm and artificial fish swarm algorithm. Then a regional crowd evacuation model in emergency, including the crowd escaping model, crowd guidance model and crowd obstacle avoidance model, is developed based on the swarm intelligence. The research will present an evacuation model being consistent in micro-macro scopic and support emergency management research on public protection both in scientific theories and methods.

英文关键词： emergency management；crowd evacuation model；particle swarm escape model；simulation deduction；