能源偏向型技术进步的理论建模、实证检验与政策模拟

项目名称： 能源偏向型技术进步的理论建模、实证检验与政策模拟

项目编号： No.71203018

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 袁鹏

作者单位： 西南财经大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 技术进步是实现能源节约和可持续发展的重要途径，但其实际效果如何在很大程度上取决于技术进步的方向。本项目以R&D内生增长理论和有向技术变化理论为基础，建立技术进步内生的一般均衡模型，分析技术进步的均衡偏向，阐明能源偏向型技术进步的形成机制；在此基础上，建立联立方程系统模型，测度中国技术进步的能源偏向，检验其成因，同时评估和预测能源偏向型技术进步的经济效应，并依据实证结果修正理论模型；最后，模拟能源偏向型技术进步的政策响应，考虑技术溢出因素对政策有效性的影响，设计能够有效推动能源节约型技术进步，成本有效性高的差异化政策或政策组合。项目的研究有望在偏向型技术变化理论、内生技术进步模型，节能减排政策设计等方面取得新成果，为政府实施节能减排的行动决策提供科学支撑和参考意见，提高宏观管理能力。

中文关键词： 能源需求；能源效率；偏向型技术进步；政策分析；

英文摘要： Technical progress is an important way to energy saving and sustainable development. However, the real effects of technical progress depend greatly on its direction. Based on R&D endogenous growth theory and directed technical change theory, a general equilibrium model incorporating endogenous technical progress will be established to analyze equilibrium bias of technical progress and explain formation mechanism of energy biased technical progress. On that basis, a simultaneous equation system model will be founded to measure energy bias of technical progress, test its cause, and assess and forecast the economic effect of energy biased technical progress in China. The above empirical results will be used to update the theoretical model. At last, the response of energy biased technical progress to policy will be simulated. Considering the impact of technology spillover on policy effectiveness, some policies or combined policies with high cost effectiveness on promoting energy- saving technical progress will be designed to be differentiated. This project is expected to obtain some innovative achievements in biased technical change theory, endogenous technical progress model and policy design of energy conservation to offer scientific supports and reference suggestions to improve macro-management ability.

英文关键词： energy demand；energy efficiency；biased technological progress；policy analysis；