小样本容量下深埋隧道结构体系稳健优化分析及动态风险评估研究

项目名称： 小样本容量下深埋隧道结构体系稳健优化分析及动态风险评估研究

项目编号： No.51208063

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 张永杰

作者单位： 长沙理工大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 深埋隧道结构体系不确定性参数具有小样本与取值界限特性，且缺乏类似工程统计数据，使基于大样本的概率可靠性分析方法应用受到限制，如何在小样本容量下对深埋隧道结构体系进行优化设计、可靠性评价及施工风险评估，已成为工程建设亟待解决的关键问题，开展相关研究具有重要的理论意义与应用价值。为此，将根据室内外试验与现场量测数据及区间数构建方法，建立深埋隧道结构体系不确定性参数区间表述方法；结合现场监测信息与动态反馈调整分析方法，进行数值模拟试验，揭示深埋隧道结构体系变形机理；以应力、位移或变形量为目标，拟合围岩与主、辅助承载结构的力学稳健性功能函数，通过建立非概率稳健优化分析方法，得到稳健可靠性指标，分析支护性能与可靠性指标对计算参数及影响因素的敏感性与容差性，提出稳健优化设计调控措施；建立深埋隧道风险评估方法，分析敏感性因素与敏感区，基于稳健优化设计与施工信息动态更新，实现深埋隧道动态风险评估。

中文关键词： 地下工程；参数取值不确定性；稳定可靠性分析；风险评估；优化设计

英文摘要： There are characteristics of small samples and value boundaries with uncertain parameters for structural system of deep buried tunnel. There is lack of the statistical data of similar project. Then the application of probabilistic reliability analysis method based on large samples is limited. The optimization design, stable reliability evaluation and construction risk control of structural system with small samples have become the key problem of deep buried tunnel construction, which need to be solved urgently. The relevant research has the important theory significance and application value. Therefore, the interval expression method of uncertain parameters is established for structural system of deep buried tunnel, which is accords to the outdoor and indoor experiments data, field measured data and interval number determining method. The numerical simulation tests are done based on the field monitoring information and dynamic feedback adjustment analysis method. The deformation mechanism of structural system to deep buried tunnel can be got. Then the mechanical robustness functions of rock mass and main bearing structure and auxiliary bearing structure can be established, which regards stress, displacement or deformation as the goal. The non-probabilistic robust optimization analysis method is suggested. The ro

英文关键词： Underground structure；uncertainty of parameter values；stability reliability analysis；risk assessment；optimal design