源地坡面土体破坏供给泥石流的随机过程

项目名称： 源地坡面土体破坏供给泥石流的随机过程

项目编号： No.41301008

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 郭晓军

作者单位： 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所

项目金额： 26万元

中文摘要： 泥石流源区坡面松散土体破坏和补给泥石流的过程具有很强的随机性，具体说来，其在时间上表现为间歇性、空间上表现为聚焦性，规模上表现为涨落性，这些特征决定了泥石流的阵性和规模的涨落。项目以不同土体特征的泥石流源区坡面为研究对象，采用野外原位试验、室内模拟实验和室内数理分析等手段，观察和总结土体破坏的随机特征，分析其在时间、空间和规模上服从的概率分布，研究概率分布的特征参数随雨强、土体粒径组成等影响因素的变化机理和变化过程，并确定其关系表达式，进而建立坡面物质供给的随机过程模型,可为泥石流的物源补给、阵流模拟提供理论依据。

中文关键词： 泥石流；土体破坏；随机过程；概率分布；模型模拟

英文摘要： The provision processes of slope failures for debris flows in source regions show great uncertainty. Specifically, Slope failure is discontinuous, with separation in time and space, and has a remarkable fluctuation in magnitude. These characteristics lead to the discontinuous, and fluctuation of debris flow surges. This project take the slopes in different debris flow source regions with diverse soil particle size composition as study objects, and observe the temporal, spatial and scale characteristics of the slope failures on the slopes through the rainfall field in situ artificial rainfall experiments, and analyze their probability distributions. Then study the mechanism and relationship expressions between representive parameters of the probability distributions with rainfall intensity and soil particle size composition. Ultimately establish the statistical processes model of slope failures providing for debris flow based on the distribution and parameters. The result can contribute the debris flow source supplies and surges simulation theoretically.

英文关键词： Debris flow；slope failure；stochastic model；probability distribution；surges simulation