基于诱发机理的区域降雨型滑坡预报模型研究

项目名称： 基于诱发机理的区域降雨型滑坡预报模型研究

项目编号： No.41202217

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 刘艳辉

作者单位： 中国地质环境监测院

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 降雨型滑坡是我国主要的滑坡灾害类型，具有区域群集发生的特点，区域滑坡预报预警是防灾减灾的重要途径。区域降雨型滑坡的诱发机理及预报模型，是滑坡预报预警的关键科学问题。传统的区域降雨型滑坡预报模型多采用统计结果建立降雨单参数模型，不能考虑地质条件变化和降雨诱发机制，预报可靠性和精度有限。建立一种基于诱发机理，考虑地质条件变化与降雨参数多因素耦合的预报判据模型，是进行区域降雨型滑坡预报研究的关键。本项目以花岗岩风化壳地区降雨型滑坡为例，采取将单体滑坡诱发机理与区域滑坡空间统计相结合的研究思路，分析滑坡发育的地质条件影响因素和降雨因素，研究降雨型滑坡的降雨诱发机制，提出区域降雨型滑坡发生的评价指标，采用确定性系数模型对定性指标定量化，提出"多因子迭加确定权重法"确定指标权重，建立多因素耦合的区域降雨型滑坡预报模型并进行校验，为该类滑坡灾害区域预报预警提供基础理论方法。

中文关键词： 降雨型滑坡；诱发机理；预警模型；；

英文摘要： Rainfall-landslides are the main geo-hazards, in China, occurs in a cluster. Regional early warning of landslides is the important measure. The inducing mechanism and early-warning method of rainfall-induced landslides are the key science problem. Traditional warning model are always include only rainfall parameters, which can not consider the change of geological condition and rainfall inducing mechanism. The reliability and precision of the traditional warning model are lower. Thus, study for the early-warning model of rainfall-induced landslides, based on inducing mechanism, becomes the key of landslides warning. The subject plans to study in the combination of landslides mechanism analysis and spatial statistics, in the granite weathering zone. Geological condition factors and rainfall factors will be analyzed; rainfall inducing mechanism will be studied. Then, with the subject, the evaluation indexes of regional rainfall-landslides may be used to early-warning model. Determinacy coefficient function model (CF) will be used in indexes quantified; a new method named as "multi-factors overlay computing" is advanced to compute power. Finally, warning model is founded, which is based on geo-environments and rainfall factors coupling to acquire the criterion. The study results will provide theoretic base to the e

英文关键词： rainfall-induced landslides；inducing mechanics；early-warning methods；；