海岛型旅游地生态安全预警模型与调控机制研究——以舟山群岛为例

项目名称： 海岛型旅游地生态安全预警模型与调控机制研究——以舟山群岛为例

项目编号： No.41301141

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 周彬

作者单位： 宁波大学

项目金额： 24万元

中文摘要： 本项目立足于旅游生态学和旅游地理学的前沿问题，以生态安全作为研究视角和切入点，将"海岛型旅游地生态安全"这一学术理论问题和舟山群岛旅游发展实践和生态环境现状紧密结合。运用系统动力学的理论和方法对海岛型旅游地生态系统的结构、功能和调节机制进行分析，研究海岛型旅游地生态安全的理论内涵及其影响因素，采用信息熵算法对海岛型旅游地生态安全影响因素的相关性进行深入探究。在此基础上，借助状态-胁迫-免疫（SDI）框架模型，建立海岛型旅游地生态安全预警指标体系，使用径向基函数神经网络（RBF）方法，构建海岛型旅游地生态安全预警模型，同时对案例地舟山群岛进行实证研究。依据预警研究结果，构建基于海岛型旅游地生态系统状态因子、生态安全胁迫效应因子和生态风险免疫因子的调控机制，为维护包括舟山群岛在内的海岛目的地旅游生态安全提供科学依据，也为海岛旅游地经济、社会和环境可持续发展提供决策参考。

中文关键词： 海岛旅游地；生态安全；评价；预警；舟山群岛

英文摘要： Based on the cutting-edge issues of tourism ecology and tourism geography, the research project combines closely the academic theory of ecological security of island tourism destination with the Zhoushan Islands tourism and eco-environmental practices, taking ecological security as research perspective and breakthrough point. The research project expounds the connotation of ecological security of island tourism destination, analyzes the structure and function and regulation mechanism of ecological system with system dynamics theory, studies intensively influencing factors of ecological safety and its correlation with information entropy algorithm. On this basis, with the aid of SDI framework model, the research project establishes pre-warning index system of ecological safety in the island tourism destination based on three factors in ecological system state, stress effect and risk immune ability. Furthermore, using the method of radial basis function neural network, the research project constructs warning RBF model of ecological safety in the island tourism destination, and while makes empirical research on the case of the Zhoushan Islands. According to the results.establishing regulation mechanism of three factors in ecological system state, stress effect and risk immune ability to provides scientific basis of

英文关键词： Island tourist destination；ecological safety；assessment；early warning；Zhoushan Islands