铁路选线地质灾害时空危险性评估理论与方法研究

项目名称： 铁路选线地质灾害时空危险性评估理论与方法研究

项目编号： No.51478483

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 王卫东

作者单位： 中南大学

项目金额： 81万元

中文摘要： 铁路施工过程中发现不少地质灾害，增加工程造价和运营维护成本，这与铁路地质选线阶段尚缺乏有效手段定量评估潜在地质灾害对线路的危险性有直接关系。课题基于区域地质灾害时空敏感性区划理论，从宏观层面探索线域地质灾害时间-空间危险性评估的关键理论与方法。结合历史典型降雨过程的数值仿真，模拟若干典型降雨历时雨量-时间分布，得到每个雨量-时间分布函数下最不利降雨历程和临界雨量。根据地质灾害机理和历史灾害信息，建立区域地质灾害敏感性评价指标体系，基于人工智能、统计学模型和GIS空间分析技术编制区域地质灾害时空敏感性区划并进行可靠性分析。将时空敏感性区划与线路平面方案进行空间分析，优选量化线域地质灾害危险性评估指标，应用聚类分析理论，初步定量评估沿线潜在地质灾害时空危险性等级。研究成果为铁路地质选线提供初步、直观、定量的路段地质灾害危险程度评价基础理论和评价工具，提高地质选线效率与质量。

中文关键词： 铁路选线；地质选线；地质灾害敏感性区划；降雨历程仿真；地理信息系统

英文摘要： The increasing costs of construction, operation and maintenance, which are caused by the geological hazard founded during railway construction, are highly related to lacking of effective methods to quantitatively risk assess the potential geological hazard for railway line. The project is based on the time-space geographical hazard mapping theory, and explores the essential theory and method of geographical hazards in the railway line region from the macro level. Conducting the methods of numerical simulaiton on the historical data of typical precipitation and simulating the rainfall-time distribution of several typical precipitation, the most unfavorable rainfall process and critical rainfall of every precipitation process were achieved when applying the rainfall-time distribution function. Based on the mechanism of geological hazard and history hazards information, a regional geological hazard sensibility assessment index system was established. Establishing a regional geological hazard sensiblity mapping and conducting a reliability analysis after applying artificial intellegence, statistics modal and GIS spatial analysis technology. With the theory of cluster analysis, preliminary assessing the time-space risk level of potential geographical hazards along the railway line after conductting the spatial analysis of the geological hazard sensibility mapping and the railway track plan and selectting evaluation index which can qualify geographical hazards in the railway line region.The research achievement provides the preliminary, intuitive and quantitative assessment basic theory and evaluation tool of geological hazard level, and improves the efficiency and quailty of the railway selection.

英文关键词： railway alignment;geological route selection;geographical hazard susceptibility mapping;rainfall process simulation;GIS