不确定环境下企业低碳技术的动态投资研究

项目名称： 不确定环境下企业低碳技术的动态投资研究

项目编号： No.71203205

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 周远祺

作者单位： 中国地质大学（武汉）

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 企业既要保持增长，同时又要满足国家节能减排的硬性规定是一项艰巨的任务。本项目采用实物期权理论、最优控制、社会责任等理论，以完成国家不同时期节能减排目标和企业战略整体节能减排投资最优为主攻对象，探索化石燃料价格、碳交易价格波动的规律，发现化石燃料价格、碳交易价格、节能减排目标、碳税、政府补贴、低碳技术更新以及市场利率、投资成本等各种市场、政策、经济不确定因素对企业低碳技术多期动态的投资及其投资价值的内在影响，揭示以上不确定性因素与企业投资时机和投资规模的数量关系，解决企业根据外部信息的变化动态、多期的调整低碳技术投资规模和投资时机问题。本项目对指导企业顺利完成国家不同时期的节能减排任务，达到企业整体投资最优具有重要的实际应用价值。此外，在方法上探索了复杂金融问题的计算技术和软件的实现，在拓展金融数学理论、发现金融投资规律和开发金融投资计算技术等方面具有明显的科学意义。

中文关键词： 低碳经济；不确定性；低碳技术；实物期权；投资战略

英文摘要： Enterprises need to sustain their growth while meeting the hard rule of lower carbon emission regulation. This projects intends to use real option ， optimal control and social responsibility theory, etc to concurrently attain both the main goals of optimal control carbon emission and enterprise-wide multi-period sequential energy efficiency. Various factors are considered in this project, e.g. fossil fuel price level, carbon tax transaction pattern, carbon tax pricing, reduction level of carbon emission, government stipend, carbon emission reduction technology renovation and adoption, market interest rate, and relevant investment cost, etc. These factors cover realms of market condition, public policy, economy condition, and lowering carbon emission technology. That is, this project plans to study the quantitative relationship among investment timing, investment scale, and those uncertain factors under a dynamic setting and at different horizons. It can be expected that the research outcomes can contribute to policy implication and market implementation. Specifically this study will give recommendation which help the enterprises to comply with policy requirement of carbon emission reduction over time and to optimize their investment decisions accordingly. Further, with the application of financial engineering, t

英文关键词： low-carbon economy；uncertainty；low-carbon technology；real option；investment strategy