中小学生穿越无控制人行横道时人车冲突建模与仿真

项目名称： 中小学生穿越无控制人行横道时人车冲突建模与仿真

项目编号： No.51208400

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 陈鹏

作者单位： 武汉理工大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 中小学生过街交通安全已成为社会普遍关注的问题。本项目以中小学生穿越无控制人行横道时与机动车的冲突为研究对象，采用粗糙集理论获取中小学生和驾驶员的行为策略集合，以此为基础建立基于灰色演化博弈的中小学生和驾驶员战略行为模型(决策模型)，同时分析人车冲突时行为特征和运动特性，建立中小学生和机动车战术行为模型(运动模型)，从而细致刻画中小学生和机动车相互作用演变过程；从道路时空资源利用角度建立人车冲突评价指标，应用半监督聚类算法划分人车冲突程度及评级指标分级标准，采用群体决策法确定评价指标权重，提出基于相关向量机和集对分析的不确定性评价方法，从而完善人车冲突程度评价方法体系；最终构建多智能体仿真分析平台，对提出的模型方法进行验证评价。项目成果将充实混合交通流相关理论方法，为中小学生过街安全管理和交通安全设施设置提供决策支持。

中文关键词： 过街；人行横道；人车冲突；演化博弈；仿真

英文摘要： Crossing safety for primary and secondary school students has become a common concern issue. This project takes traffic conflict between primary and secondary school students crossing uncontrolled crosswalk and vehicle as research object. Behavior strategies for primary and secondary school student and driver are obtained by rough set theory, then strategic behavior model (decision-making model) based on grey evolutionary game is established for student and driver, at the same time behavioral and movement characteristics in pedestrian vehicle conflict are analyzed, and tactical behavior models (motion models) are proposed for student and vehicle, which can describe interaction between student and vehicle in detail. Evaluation indexes of pedestrian vehicle conflict are proposed from the perspective of road space and time resources utilization. Semi-supervised clustering algorithm is applied to the classification of grading standards of pedestrian vehicle conflict, and group decision making method is used for determining the weights of evaluation indexes. Uncertainty evaluation method based on relevance vector machine and set analysis is proposed for evaluation of the level of conflict. Finally a multi-agent simulation platform is built to validate the proposed model. The outcomes of the project will enrich the th

英文关键词： crossing；crosswalk；Conflict between pedestrians and vehicles；evolutionary game；simulation