基于时空网络的季节性流感药品采购与供应交互式协调优化

项目名称： 基于时空网络的季节性流感药品采购与供应交互式协调优化

项目编号： No.71301076

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 刘明

作者单位： 南京理工大学

项目金额： 20.5万元

中文摘要： 推进医药分开，将药品的采购与供应整体交予专业药事服务商负责，是近年来医疗药事服务改革的一个重要举措。基于此实际背景，本课题拟选取季节性流感这一传染性疾病为例，首先建立人口流动情形下基于小世界网络的季节性流感扩散动力学模型，通过仿真分析的方法挖掘出其扩散的关键控制参数，继而构建药品时变需求预测模型；其次，从需求驱动和容量约束的角度，研究季节性流感患者的整体指派优化行为，在考虑药品生产商的生产能力及提前期水平、以及药品储备分销中心的订购决策行为等因素基础上，构建基于时空网络的药品采购与供应协调优化模型；最后，建立药品资源配置反馈机制，修正时变需求预测模型，并以每个决策周期季节性流感患者变化人数为优化对象，构建基于时空网络的药品采购与供应交互式协调优化模型。本课题研究将季节性流感药品的需求预测、采购、生产和供应进行了整体优化设计，研究成果将有效刻画季节性流感扩散网络与药品配置网络的动态协同效应。

中文关键词： 季节性流感；时空网络；医疗物资；协调优化；

英文摘要： In recent years, an important method in pharmaceutical service reform is to separate doctor with medicine, and all medicine purchasing and supply services are provided by one or more professional pharmaceutical service providers. Based on this actual social background, a kind of infectious diseases, seasonal influenza, is taken as our example in this project. Firstly, considering population flow situation, we will propose a dynamic model for diffusion of seasonal influenza based on small-world network, find out the key control parameters by simulation method, and then construct a time-varying demand forecasting model.Secondly,we will optimize the assignment behavior of the sufferers according to demand and capacity constraint. After that, the coordination optimization model for medicine purchasing and supply will be presented, which considers production ability and lead time level of the pharmaceutical manufacturer, and decision-making behavior of the pharmaceutical distribution center. Finally, we will construct the feedback mechanism of the medicine allocation, and modify the time varying demand forecasting model. Based on these works, an interactive and coordination optimization model for medicine purchasing and supply will be presented, which takes the variational number of infectors as the optimization obje

英文关键词： Seasonal influenza；Time-space network；Medical resource；Coordination optimization；