水利水电工程地下洞室施工危险源安全监测预警技术研究

项目名称： 水利水电工程地下洞室施工危险源安全监测预警技术研究

项目编号： No.51509079

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 蒋裕丰

作者单位： 河海大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 重点针对“水利水电工程地下洞室施工危险源安全监测预警”主题，考虑施工对象、设备、人员、环境等多种影响施工安全的因素，引入危险源理论开展地下洞室施工危险源定义、分类及辨识技术研究，提出利用关联规则进行数据挖掘的危险源辨识技术及基于能量理论与管理疏忽危险树分析的危险源辨识方法；鉴于作为危险能量载体的第一类危险源具有“小样本、贫信息、多突变”的灰特征，利用狄克松准则开展危险源监测数据小样本粗差处理技术研究，建立基于含参函数变换、等维新息及时变参数的第一类危险源预警灰模型；考虑到基于危险环境、设备及主体的第二类危险源预警定量分析困难、不确定性强，提出利用集对分析理论建立第二类危险源多指标预警模型；构建水利水电工程地下洞室施工期危险源监控综合预警体系，研发水利水电工程地下洞室施工危险源安全监测预警分析系统，以期为水利水电工程地下洞室施工安全控制提供源头技术支持和科学依据。

中文关键词： 安全监测；危险源辨识；粗差处理；预警模型

英文摘要： According to the subject of “Safety monitoring and early-warning of hazards in underground cavern construction of water conservancy and hydropower engineering”, considering the complex factors in construction safety, the hazards theory will be taken on underground cavern construction of water conservancy and hydropower engineering. The definition and classification of hazards will be studied. The hazard identification methods will be proposed based on data mining technology and energy-based theory and Management Oversight Risk Tree analysis respectively. According to gray characteristics of Small samples, poor information, multi-mutation of the first hazard warning system, the technology of small samples cross error processing will be studied, then making data transformation of a function with parameter, introducing equal dimension and the time-varying parameter modeling method will be used to improve the traditional gray model. Thereby, the time-varying equal dimension gray model will be established with a full account of the data smoothness. Based on the multi-indicator warning model in set pair analysis theory, the multi-indicator warning method of water conservancy and hydropower engineering will be taken to solve difficulties of warning quantitative analysis and uncertainties of the second hazard combining with the second hazard warning mechanism research. At last, the safety monitoring and early-warning system of hazards in underground cavern construction of water conservancy and hydropower engineering will be developed to provide technical support and scientific basis for safety control in underground cavern construction of water conservancy and hydropower engineering.

英文关键词： Safty Monitoring;hazards identification;cross error processing;early-warning model