地下工程地震灾害风险的贝叶斯网络评价方法及其可靠性研究

项目名称： 地下工程地震灾害风险的贝叶斯网络评价方法及其可靠性研究

项目编号： No.51308541

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 王凤山

作者单位： 中国人民解放军理工大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 近年来，地震致使地下工程出现的严重事故或灾难性事故，越来越引起社会各界的关注，如何把握复杂的震灾环境以及复杂多变的风险因素，从而将风险控制在可接受的范围之内，是震灾处置的前提条件，因此亟需开展地下工程地震灾害风险评估方面的研究。研究内容主要包括：①.规范并完善地下工程地震灾害风险体系的相关概念，建立地下工程地震灾害风险本体；②.分析地下工程地震灾害风险事件类型及其征候指标和致险机理，研究地下工程地震灾害风险辨识方法；③.在简化震害风险变量和数据结构且保证原始数据损失最小的约束下，研究基于主成分分析与贝叶斯网络的地下工程震害风险评估模型；④.在保持地下工程地震灾害风险判决能力不变的约束条件下，研究基于粗糙集约简和贝叶斯网络的地下工程地震灾害风险评估模型；⑤.设计支持最小风险的震害风险评估置信水平和目标函数，比对主成分分析和粗糙集约简条件下地下工程震害风险贝叶斯网络评价方法的可靠性。

中文关键词： 地下工程；地震；风险辨识；贝叶斯网络；风险评估

英文摘要： In recent years, that some serious or catastrophic accidents occurred in underground engineering resulted by earthquake risk, has drawn extensive concerns from all the circles. How to grasp the complexity of the earthquake environment as well as the complex risk factors, was such a prerequisite of the earthquake disposition, so as to control the risk within the acceptable range. Therefore, it was urgent to carry out a study on earthquake risk evaluation in underground engineering. This study mainly included: ①. After standardizing, specifying and improving the related concepts of earthquake risk system in underground engineering, earthquake risk ontology was erectted for underground engineering. ②. Through analysizing or demonstrating earthquake risk event types, risk symptom factors and its mechanism, risk identification methods was studied in earthquake-caused underground engineering risk system; ③. With the simplification of risk variables and data structure, and the constraint of minimal loss about the original data, earthquake risk evaluation model was established on the basis of Principal Component Analysis and Bayesian Network; ④. In the restriction of keeping the capability of earthquake risk judgments, earthquake risk evaluation model was established on Rough Set Theory and Bayesian Network; ⑤. Along wi

英文关键词： underground engineering；earthquake；risk identification；Bayesian network；risk evaluation