航班延误沿网络的传播机理及可靠性研究

项目名称： 航班延误沿网络的传播机理及可靠性研究

项目编号： No.71201081

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学与工程

项目作者： 吴薇薇

作者单位： 南京航空航天大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 考虑到运行成本最小化和资源利用最大化的目标，航空公司的运行计划安排就会更为紧凑，冗余度低。一旦出现随机扰动因素的影响，机场会发生航班延误并通过飞机路线、机组连接或旅客连接向网络中其他机场节点传播，网络运行可靠性随之降低。本课题对产生及影响航班延误及传播的扰动因素进行分析，基于copula函数研究因素之间的相关性并建立多因素航班延误及传播模型；建立航班延误沿网络传播过程中网络运行可靠性和运行效率多目标优化模型并提出粒子群算法研究；围绕着机场容量、旅客服务时间、飞机路线与机组的缓冲时间等一系列指标确定描述网络运行状态的可靠性，并针对网络结构、机场、时刻等不同特征对网络运行可靠性进行Monte-Carlo仿真分析。根据仿真结果提出相应的优化策略及可靠性策略，为航空运输对象在有效率地利用好其资源的同时保障计划运行的弹性及可靠性具有重要的指导意义

中文关键词： 运行可靠性；航班延误及传播；航空运输网络；扰动；延误因素

英文摘要： General optimisation objectives of schedule planning may include: minimising operating costs and maximising the utilisation of resources. The optimisation process tends to generate tight aircraft routing plans.Once affected by stochastic disruptions, we can observe the 'delay propagation phenomenon' in airline networks through aircraft routing, crew connections and passenger connections, leading to the operational reliability decreased.This project correlates delays with sets of causal factors based on Copula function and creates multi-factor flight delay propagation models, and builds operational reliability and operating efficiency multi-objective optimization model in the case of flight delay propagation, with proposing a particle swarm optimization algorithm. Afterwards, for determining the network operational reliability, this paper chooses series of indicators such as airport capacity, passenger service time, aircraft routing and crew buffer time, furthermore proceeds Monte-Carlo simulation analysis from network structure, airport, slot or other characteristics.According to the simulation results, this project put forward corresponding optimization strategies and reliability strategies. So the study has important guiding significance for airlines and airports to use their resources efficiently, while safeg

英文关键词： operational reliability；flight delay propagation；air transportation network；disruption；delay factor