地质灾害监测关键信息快速提取及综合预警模型研究

项目名称： 地质灾害监测关键信息快速提取及综合预警模型研究

项目编号： No.41302242

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 黄健

作者单位： 成都理工大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 地质灾害监测预警是提升主动应对地质灾害能力的重要手段。随着社会和经济的高速发展，人类不断向山区寻求发展空间，造成地质灾害的发生越来越频繁，损失也越来越巨大。西南地区地质条件极为复杂，是我国受地质灾害影响最为强烈的地区之一，并且近年来又受到地震的影响（如汶川地震），面临着更多复杂因素作用下的地质灾害隐患点。针对这一问题，选择27个典型灾害体作为重点研究对象，在已建成的地质灾害综合信息管理及实时监测预警平台的基础上，利用数据仓库与数据挖掘技术，深入研究地质灾害监测关键信息的快速提取方法；同时，结合到长期积累的监测数据，分析地质灾害不同监测指标之间的相互作用关系及其导致地质灾害发生的概率，以此为基础，建立基于多指标的地质灾害空间耦合综合判据，实现地质灾害综合预警。最终，构建一套较完善的地质灾害综合监测自动预警方法体系。

中文关键词： 地质灾害；监测预警；关键指标；快速提取；预警模型

英文摘要： Early warning of geohazard ascts as an important role in improving the actively responding ability of human beings to control and mitigate geohazards. With the rapid economic growth, human beings keep expanding their living space to mountain areas. Geohazards, resultantly, occur more and more frequently in recent years than ever before, causing catastrophic economic losses and fatalities. The Southwest of China is one of the most affected regions by such events, where the complicated geological condition exists and gestates earthquakes (e.g., the Wenchuan Earthquake). The potential geohazards keep being brought to reality with complicated development and failure mechanism. Concerning this issue, 27 typical cases are selected as the key study object. Based on the information management system and real-time early warning platform of geohazards, more study on rapid extraction approach has been done with data warehouse and data mining technology. At the mean time, combined with the accumulated monitoring data, the interaction intensity of different index and the probabilities of geohazards have been analysised. The multidimentional comprehensive criteria with spatial coupled, therefore, has been established according to the multiple factors for comprehensive precaution. Finally, an integrated methodology for geohaza

英文关键词： geohazards；real-time monitoring；key index；fast extraction；early warning model