陆地碳数据同化中的模型“异参同效”问题研究

项目名称： 陆地碳数据同化中的模型“异参同效”问题研究

项目编号： No.41471359

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 冉有华

作者单位： 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

项目金额： 85万元

中文摘要： 在Bayes数据同化框架下，系统梳理影响陆地生态系统碳循环模型参数识别率的各种因素，充分考虑通量观测和遥感观测的代表性误差的基础上，评估模型异参同效对系统模拟和预报不确定性的影响，深化对陆地生态系统碳循环模型异参同效这一极具挑战性问题的认识，促进陆地生态系统碳通量模拟和预报的精度并定量化其不确定性。

中文关键词： 数据同化；不确定性分析；参数识别；碳循环

英文摘要： The objectives of this project proposal include three points. Firstly, to review the various factors affecting terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle model parameter identification rate; Secondly, a carbon data assimilation system based on Bayesian inference framework will be developed to evaluate the uncertainty due to parameterization equifinality, and which associated with representativeness errors in flux observation and remote sensing observations in both spatially and seasonally. To deepen our understanding of the equifinality; Thirdly, to explore way through the integration of multi-source observations to reduce uncertainty in model parameters, and quantitative measure and control the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle modeling and forecasting.

英文关键词： Data assimilation;Uncertainty;Parameter identifiability;carbon cycle