产业转移的碳溢出效应测度研究-以皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区为例

项目名称： 产业转移的碳溢出效应测度研究-以皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区为例

项目编号： No.71203100

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 朱佩枫

作者单位： 南京中医药大学

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 东部产业转移所带来的碳溢出效应是减少碳排放与推进中西部地区经济发展的共赢路径之一，那么如何利用东部产业转移完成双重任务？哪些因素可以提高产业转移带来的碳溢出效应？作用机理是什么？采用什么模型进行测算？政策效果如何？本项目在界定碳溢出效应科学内涵的基础上，采用基于偏最小二乘法的结构方程模型来研究产业转移碳溢出的机理，分析和评价各种不同的碳溢出路径；构建基于MCMC的Malmquist碳溢出效应模型，采用差异测算法测算承接地碳溢出效应空间，并运用基于quasi-FGLS的Wald检验进行平稳性检验和政策效果评估，以皖江城市带承接转移示范区为承接地，长三角地区为来源地测算2004-2011年的产业转移碳溢出效应；针对理论和实证分析结果提出基于节能减排和产业升级的政策设计。本课题不仅有助于减少碳排放与推进中西部地区经济发展，也为科学制定产业转移政策提供一般方法论与政策分析工具。

中文关键词： 区域产业转移；转移效率；产业集聚；可持续发展；皖江城市带

英文摘要： One of the win-win paths to reduce carbon emissions and promote the economic development of central and western regions is the carbon spillover effects resulted from the eastern industrial transfer. Then how to use the eastern industrial transfer to accomplish the double missions? What factors can increase the carbon spillover effect that bring about by industrial transfer? What is the mechanism of the function? What model can be used to calculate? what about the policy effectiveness? Based on defining the scientific connotation of carbon spillover effect, this project employs partial least squares and structural equation model to study the industrial transfer of carbon overflow mechanism, and construct, Malmquist carbon spillover effects model on the base of MCMC form. Making use of difference calculation method to estimate undertake carbon spillover effects in space. The Wald test that based on quasi-FGLS is applied to stationary test and assessment of the effects of policies. Take the Wan-jiang Urban Belt as the industry receiver and Yangtze River Delta region as the original provinces to estimate the industrial transfer carbon spillover effects between 2004 and 2011. According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, This project is hopefully to reduce carbon emissions and promote economic dev

英文关键词： Industrial transfer； Industrial transfer efficiency；Industrial agglomeration；Economic sustainable development；the Wan-jiang Urban Belt