干旱半干旱区河岸带植物水分来源多示踪技术及不确定性研究

项目名称： 干旱半干旱区河岸带植物水分来源多示踪技术及不确定性研究

项目编号： No.51209064

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 水利科学与海洋工程学科

项目作者： 张丹蓉

作者单位： 河海大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 河岸带对水陆生态系统间的物质流、能量流和生物流发挥廊道、过滤和屏障作用。干旱半干旱区河岸带生态系统敏感而脆弱，植被对水文条件变化反应强烈。以稳定同位素及水化学成分等为示踪剂的示踪技术是确定植被水分来源的重要技术手段，但目前对示踪法应用中的不确定性研究不足，缺乏对不确定性的完整、科学的量化描述，对多示踪剂减少不确定性的作用研究有待深入。本研究拟以预期有显著水文条件变化的海流兔河岸带为研究对象，利用稳定同位素、EC和水化学离子作示踪剂区分河岸带植被水分来源，应用统计方法寻求植物水分来源时空变化规律和主要影响因子，对示踪数据进行多方案随机组合并分别解读，利用普适似然不确定性估计法进行各组合的不确定性分析，基于贝叶斯理论建立多源数据同化方法，并结合HYDRUS模拟结果进行综合分析。研究成果将丰富示踪技术不确定性理论，为河岸带水分运动实验研究提供参考，指导示踪剂的选择和应用，具有良好的理论和应用价值

中文关键词： 河岸带；不确定性；干旱半干旱区；同位素；

英文摘要： Riparian zone acts as corridor, filter and barrier for the mass, energy and biological flows between aqua-land ecosystems. Riparian zone of the arid and semi-arid zones is sensible and vulnerable. Vegetation reacts strongly to the changes of the hydrological conditions. Tracer technology using isotopes, water chemicals and so on as the traces is the important technique to determine sources of vegetation water. However, so far the research on the uncertainty associated with the tracer technology is not abundant. Erodos-Yulin is the energy base of China, and is facing the risk of hydrological changes caused by energy exploitation. This research takes Hailiutu river as research project. Isotope, EC and water chemical components will be used as tracer to partition the soil water and vegetation water sources. The spatio-temporal variation will be analysed and the environmental factors will be evaluated. The tracer data will be combined randomly and interpreted respectively. The uncertainty will be analysed with Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. The results will be assimilated with Bayesian theory. The results will be compared with HYDRUS modelling results. The research outputs will enrich the water cycle theory of riparian zone and the tracer technique and can guide the application of trace

英文关键词： riparian zone；uncertainty；arid/semi-arid zone；isotope；