分散决策对梯级多主体电站效益均衡的影响机理

项目名称： 分散决策对梯级多主体电站效益均衡的影响机理

项目编号： No.51509009

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 李清清

作者单位： 长江水利委员会长江科学院

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 分散决策模式下流域梯级多主体电站发电调度运行方式存在不确定性，继而使流域水能资源难以得到充分利用。围绕这一工程实际问题，本研究以分散决策模式下流域梯级电站的多主体决策特征分析为切入点，采用动态博弈理论，分析发电调度决策过程中梯级多主体电站的竞合关系和对策决策特征，揭示并定量描述影响对策决策过程的关键要素；考虑不同要素对发电调度对策过程的影响，建立动态博弈模型及其均衡求解方法；通过博弈均衡特性分析，揭示分散决策模式下梯级多主体电站效益均衡对调度决策的影响机理，据此提出梯级多主体电站补偿效益制定方法，最后通过典型案例进行验证。研究成果是梯级水电能源系统优化运行理论和方法的扩充和发展，可为梯级多主体电站优化调度决策和流域水能资源高效利用提供理论支撑。

中文关键词： 梯级电站；多主体；效益均衡；分散决策；影响机理

英文摘要： The decentralized decision-making mode of multi-agent cascade hydropower plants causes the uncertainty of their operation strategies and consequently affects the utilization efficiency of hydropower resources significantly. Surrounding this real Engineering problem, this research begins with the analysis of the multi-agent system feature of cascade hydropower plants as a breakthrough point, then the decision-making characteristics and competitive/cooperative relation of different hydropower plants in the process of generation scheduling decision-making process are analyzed to find and quantitatively describe the key factors that affect the process with the adoption of game theory. Dynamic game model of generation scheduling decision-making problem is constructed and the solving algorithm for game equilibriums is also presented afterwards. After that, according to the analysis of the characteristics of the equilibriums, the affecting mechanism of different key factors on the benefits equilibrium is revealed based on which the compensation benefits making method is presented. Finally case study is provided to prove the conclusions. This research will extend the optimal operation theory and method of cascade hydropower energy system and provide theoretical basis for optimal utilization of hydropower resources.

英文关键词： Cascade hydropower plants;Multi-agent;benefits equilibrium;decentralized decision-making;affecting mechanism